Cold? Don't Worry, It's Just the Weather
It’s getting cold out there – really cold. Here in Europe, we’re experiencing a big chill: although it’s nothing as severe as the record -27C recorded in Scotland 14 years ago, it’s dumped tons of snow, prompted Severe Weather Warnings and forced the closure of many roads, harbors and airports. The tabloid newspaper reaction couldn’t be more predictable. “Global warming? Rubbish!”
The last few years have seen an extraordinary amount of popular misinformation, pop-science, lambasting, mud-slinging and expelled hot air on the subject of whether global warming is taking place and if so, whether it’s the result of human activities or not. A global cold spell in 2008 intensified the controversy. Meanwhile, climate scientists continued to practice climate science – in other words, gathering atmospheric data and fitting it into models to predict long-term trends. It was just another year to add to the end of their graphs.
The problem is a common assumption that “climate” and “weather” are much the same thing. Look out your window, see global warming (or the lack of it). In fact, they’re two different atmospheric sciences – climatology and meteorology. Meteorology, better know as “the weather”, is a fabulously complicated series of atmospheric interactions where the mathematics are so complex, so exotically unknowable by modern scientific standards, that all the weathermen can do is give you an informed guess about tomorrow’s sky. Occasionally they can be very, very wrong.
Climatology, on the other hand, is about long-term patterns. You need to stand back to see what’s really happening, like you’re looking at a picture mosaic. Climate patterns only start to emerge over decades (such as with the Keeling Curve), centuries and millennia – and the problem is that many of our yearly measurements don’t go back that far, prompting the use of techniques such as ice coring and dendrochronology.
The long-term pattern is of a steady rise in global temperatures. Period. This is naturally going to affect the weather, but we’re still unsure exactly how – and even if we knew, we still couldn’t predict the weather tomorrow, next week or next year. And just as one swallow doesn’t make a summer, one cold snap doesn’t make a troubled climate. It’s probably just the weather.
Image: Noël Zia Lee
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6 Comments
January 12th, 2009 at 9:30 am
I wonder, do you use the same type of righteous indignation when people blame natural disasters (Tsumani’s, hurricanes, etc) on global warming?
I didn’t think so.
Ricky’s last blog post..Max Gladwell on The Environment
January 12th, 2009 at 10:19 am
Ricky, that was needlessly hostile. I don’t think there was anything particularly righteous in Mike’s article. Criticisms are welcome; cutting sarcasm is not very helpful, however.
January 12th, 2009 at 5:01 pm
Hi, Ricky…
Apologies if I sounded righteous – that wasn’t my intention. I’m just hoping to highlight a popular trend that seems to be frustrating people working in the climate sciences at the moment, one that is obscuring the real issues…
I’m happy to hear if you disagree
.
January 12th, 2009 at 6:47 pm
Mike,
I may have read too much into it. Either way, I could’ve been more civil and for that I apologize.
One of my major gripes with the common approach to environmentalism is to dismiss any criticisms as “Right Wing Propaganda” and embrace any catastrophe’s as undeniable proof of the “evil of mankind”.
For example, your “Sick Pelicans Falling from the Sky”. (http://www.ecosalon.com/pelica.....al-deaths/)
“Though the exact cause is a mystery, it’s almost certainly due to human impact.”
My point is that ecology and environmentalism doesn’t have to be told like a scary children’s story. In fact, I believe it’s counterproductive. When you tell people that if they don’t change their ways the sky will start falling, and they see evidence of the opposite, they will be less receptive to the necessary changes. I.e. “it’s cold, so global warming must be a lie”.
Again, I apologize for my tone earlier.
Ricky’s last blog post..Max Gladwell on The Environment
January 12th, 2009 at 6:49 pm
Ha! A little after 11am this morning, as I was getting ready to give a talk on the science of global warming, and what the people at a local senior center could do in their own lives to fight it, I tuned in to the Glenn Beck radio program. As fate would have it, he and his sidekick, Stu, launched a scathing attack on the whole notion of global warming, noting how much snow they’ve had in their area (NYC), and how cold it’s been. I guess I can’t remember all they said, but it was the usual contrairian talking points. That really got me going, and the talk went great. With the question and answer period, it lasted 1.5 hours. There are now 5 more people who know what’s up with man-made global warming. They’ll talk with five more, so the word will spread. Guess we have to get this done on the grass roots level.
January 12th, 2009 at 7:28 pm
Hi Ricky, I wish you would’ve addressed me directly on that post. It would have been nice to know your feelings (although I’m wondering if you’re the Digger who left the very same criticism about the “human behavior” line).
That wasn’t meant to be a scare-mongering humans-are-evil sentence. Based on all the articles I found about the topic, every credible theory about why the pelicans are sick is related to human behavior. I thought I’d implied that in that particular statement, but apparently it came off more sensationally than I’d meant it.
Anyway, thanks for the feedback.
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